China faces a “colossal” outbreak of COVID if opened, and after U.S. travel controls could cause more than 630,000 cases daily, according to study

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According to a study by mathematicians at Peking University, China could face more than 630,000 COVID-19 infections a day if it reduced its zero-tolerance policies by lifting travel controls.

Key points:

China reported 23 new coronavirus cases on Saturday, down from 25 the day beforeUsing the same approach as the US could increase cases to 637,155, while copying Britain would result in 275,793 new cases daily.China says the importance of containing local cases outweighs the disruptions caused by efforts to locate, isolate and treat those infected.

In the report published in China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, mathematicians said China could not afford to lift travel restrictions without more efficient vaccines or specific treatments.

Using August data from the United States, Britain, Spain, France, and Israel, mathematicians assessed potential outcomes if China adopted the same pandemic control tactics as those countries.

According to the report, China’s new daily cases would reach at least 637,155 if it adopted the U.S. pandemic strategy.

Daily cases would reach 275,793 if China took the same approach as Britain and 454,198 if it mimicked France, he said.

“The estimates revealed the real possibility of a colossal outbreak which would almost certainly induce an unaffordable burden on the medical system,” the report said.

Keep up to date with the latest news on COVID-19 starting November 28 by taking a look at our blog.

“Our findings have raised a clear warning that, for the time being, we are not ready to embrace ‘open-up’ strategies resting solely on the hypothesis of herd immunity induced by vaccination advocated by certain western countries.”

Mathematicians warned that their estimates were based on basic arithmetic calculations and that more sophisticated models were needed to study the evolution of the pandemic if travel restrictions were lifted.

Other nations returning travel restrictions

China has maintained a policy of zero tolerance towards COVID-19, saying the importance of containing local cases when detected outweighs the disruptions caused by efforts to locate, isolate and treat those infected.

Why China will not give up its COVID-zero strategy

Rising nationalism and possible fears about the effectiveness of Chinese vaccines mean that Beijing could be blocked for years. But with isolation there are risks.

China reported 23 new confirmed cases of coronavirus on Nov. 27, down from 25 the day before, its health authority said Sunday.

The World Health Organization (WHO) on Friday designated a new variant of COVID-19 detected in South Africa with a large number of mutations as “worrying,” prompting some countries to impose travel restrictions.

Several countries, such as Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iran, Japan, Thailand and the United States, have joined others, including the European Union and the United Kingdom, to impose restrictions on South African countries in response to warnings. on the transmissibility of the new variant. against the advice of the WHO.

Israel said it would ban the entry of all foreigners into the country, making it the first country to completely close its borders in response to the new variant.

The government said it would use anti-terrorist telephone tracking technology to contain the spread of Omicron.

ABC / Reuters

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